Understanding risk.
With restrictions lifting in many places in the coming weeks, we all need to get educated on the nuances of risk and our individual tolerances as families.
š° The Topic
If thereās one thing thatās clear about what lays ahead (and thereās not much), itās that weāre all going to be navigating a new world of risk.
As parents, weāre hardly new to navigating risk - from childbirth, to sleeping infants, to unsteady toddlers, to leaving our kids with a new caregiver, risk is what makes being a parent so hard.
Itās our job to keep our kids safe but itās impossible to know or predict everything. So we all end up figuring out our own tolerances of adverse events happening and configuring our lives to accommodate and optimize for those choices.
The phase weāre now entering is no different. We all have individual risk factors and risk tolerances. The key will be for all of us to understand them and make choices based on them.
Thereās still so much we donāt know, but by better mapping out the different factors, the better we can all make the choices that are right for our families and our communities.
To start, we all need to remember 3 things, summarized here by Dr. Robert Pearl:
Staying home saves lives but it doesnāt kill the virus - strict social distancing and sheltering in place is about buying time - time to keep healthcare capacity in healthy ranges, time to up testing capacity, time to make PPE. As we start lifting restrictions, itās important to know that weāre going to figure out how to live with constant risk and in ways that are right for our situations.
Weāre in this for the long-haulĀ - as much as weāre all hoping for a speedy āendā, thatās not likely without a widely available vaccine (or āherd immunityā) - both optimistically at least 18-24 months away. By properly and realistically resetting our expectations (as depressing as it is), we can properly settle in for the marathon itās going to be.
We need to remember the most important metricĀ - R0. Weāve talked about this number before but it measures the transmission rate of the virus. The goal is to keep it < 1, because that means that every person that has it, gives it to <1 person, meaning eventually, it dies out. By monitoring this (of course, this is dependent on the availability and accuracy of testing improving drastically as well), we can more fluidly and effectively toggle the necessary restrictions.
Ok. So, with this in mind, how do we navigate what our risk profile is (eg. given our health, work realities, how likely is it weād get the virus, and if we did, would it impact high risk people) and what risks weāre okay with?
A couple of the questions to start thinking about:
What is the current situation in your city/region, including health system capacity -> if lots of active cases, lower risk tolerance.
Is anyone in your immediate family high-risk (grandparents/ immunocompromised etc) -> if so, lower risk tolerance
Does any part of your work or life add risk? Eg front line worker or rely on public transportation -> if so, lower risk tolerance
Again, itās still early, with different authorities, public health experts and individuals trying to figure out helpful frameworks on navigating everyday risk, but so far, here are two that help start thinking about risk tolerance in a couple of ways:
Itās Time to Learn Pandemic Math - one personās search for a system to help navigate what actions/risks their family takes.
COVID CARE - A Way Forward to Opening Up Social Circles - an MDās approach to thinking through individual ācontainersā, risk and agreements.
Have a different way of looking at things or come across something helpful for all families? Share it with us (hello@modernvillage.com) - if ever thereās been a time where we need to not be each reinventing the wheel, itās now.
š¤ Worth Reading/Watching
An Oral History of the Day Everything Changed - things were happening so fast those fateful weeks in March that itās fascinating to read about March 11 now, just a mere 8 weeks later.
Quarantine Fatigue is Real - the case for helping people get educated on and start managing risk for themselves and their communities.
What Happens Next - COVID-19 Futures, Explained With Playable Simulations - for everyone that wants to play around with the many āwhat-ifsā - helps to get more comfortable with the menu of all very hard options, no matter which what you choose.